• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0835

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 2 00:24:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 020024
    SPC MCD 020024=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0835
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0724 PM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 020024Z - 020200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe hail may briefly accompany one
    of the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have organized into small, transient supercells
    over the past couple of hours, with MRMS mosaic MESH data suggesting
    that a couple of the storms may have briefly produced marginally
    severe hail. These storms are propagating southward into an
    environment with slightly higher mid-level lapse rates (exceeding
    7.5 C/km per latest RAP forecast soundings), where up to 1000 J/kg
    MLCAPE is present based on 00Z mesoanalysis. Diurnally driven
    buoyancy overlapping 40 kts of effective bulk shear will continue to
    support storm organization and the chance for a marginally severe
    hailstone or damaging gust over the next few hours, as also
    suggested by Warn-On-Forecast ensemble output. However, storms are
    expected to gradually weaken after sunset when the boundary-layer
    decouples. The isolated, brief nature of the severe threat precludes
    a WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oCsghCT1a8efgXmOCHCtV9sGU9EjO2HeutLMSDZ5SzgdRRmndkqjerzJNwJymb0r5Pitlfax$=
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    LAT...LON 32200136 32010243 32130281 32560313 33370319 33910307
    34210246 34200169 34050115 33860101 33400090 32830097
    32330121 32200136=20

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