• Pacific-NW: TD Choi-Wan12

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Tue Jun 1 16:48:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 011800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2103 CHOI-WAN (2103)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TS CHOI-WAN IS LOCATED AT 11.8N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
    1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
    THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
    INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
    MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
    SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
    GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
    THE SYSTEM.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
    NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
    PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
    CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
    OUTPUTS.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
    INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
    THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
    DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48.
    THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
    INCLUDING GSM.
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