• Pacific-EN: TS Blanca D8

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Tue Jun 1 16:46:00 2021
    WTPZ42 KNHC 011458
    TCDEP2

    Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion Number 8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
    900 AM MDT Tue Jun 01 2021

    Blanca's satellite appearance has degraded some this morning, with
    the convective structure evolving more into a shear pattern. Recent
    SSMIS microwave passes and first-light visible imagery suggest the
    center is now located on the southwest edge of a recent convective
    burst. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications are lower than
    last night with T2.5/35 kt from SAB and T3.0/45 kt from TAFB. The
    initial intensity was kept at 50 kt for this advisory, but that
    could be generous.

    The cyclone's estimated motion is 300/6 kt, a bit more westward than
    before. The track philosophy has not changed much this advisory, as
    a mid- to upper-level trough near the Baja California peninsula is
    beginning to weaken the steering ridge. Thus, Blanca is expected to
    move generally west-northwestward with a continued decrease in
    forward speed over the next couple of days. Afterwards, the system
    should turn more westward within the low-level trade winds as it
    becomes vertically shallow. The latest NHC forecast track is a bit
    further southward than the previous advisory, but remains close to
    the HCCA corrected consensus aid.

    First-light visible imagery suggests that the low-level center of
    Blanca may be in the process of becoming exposed. Owing to the
    degradation in the current satellite structure, Blanca is no longer
    expected to intensify, and in fact may already be weaker than
    currently estimated. Increasing vertical wind shear appears to be
    disrupting the current structure of the cyclone. A gradual weakening
    trend is now forecast to begin by this evening through the end of
    the forecast period as Blanca moves into an environment of drier
    mid-level air and cooler sea surface temperatures. The NHC intensity
    forecast remains close to the HCCA and ICON consensus aids.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 01/1500Z 14.3N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
    12H 02/0000Z 14.8N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 02/1200Z 15.2N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 03/0000Z 15.5N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
    48H 03/1200Z 15.6N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
    60H 04/0000Z 15.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
    72H 04/1200Z 15.8N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
    96H 05/1200Z 16.1N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
    120H 06/1200Z 16.5N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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