• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0834

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 1 19:14:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011914
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011914=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-012115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0834
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0214 PM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 011914Z - 012115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Marginally organized storms will develop along the higher
    terrain, some of which will move out onto the plains. These storms
    will be capable of small to marginally severe hail and
    strong/damaging wind gusts. No WW is expected.

    DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level vortex moving
    into northeast Colorado. Widely-scattered convection has developed
    along the western flank of this feature from the Cheyenne Ridge
    southward across the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo. Continued surface
    heating and lift from the shortwave trough will foster some
    intensification of storms this afternoon. KCYS and KFTG VWP data
    show around 30 kts of flow at mid-levels which should translate to
    25-30 kts of effective shear. Mid-level lapse rates on the DNR/RIW
    observed morning soundings showed 7-8 C/km lapse rates. Despite
    limited surface moisture, this would be supportive of small to
    marginally severe hail. Dry low-levels and strong heating will bring
    potential for strong convectively enhanced wind gusts as well.
    Activity will generally be sparse and diminish after sunset. No WW
    is expected.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qleWyOJZbVDWvIX89ZeM7blYR5xOpsqQrPQAoBEJahMyUpEmVHr984tIETRuDRWj0v-EFgPf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 40820498 41150405 40730336 38570243 36870221 35730226
    35300284 35250446 35640489 35960503 38140453 40820498=20



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