• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0831

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 1 03:08:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 010308
    SPC MCD 010307=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0831
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1007 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

    Areas affected...The Rio Grande River vicinity of south central

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231...

    Valid 010307Z - 010430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231

    SUMMARY...An organizing cluster of thunderstorms may pose increasing
    risk for strong surface gusts across the Rio Grande River vicinity
    between Del Rio and Laredo, into adjacent portions of southern Texas
    through 11 PM-1 AM CDT. Trends are being monitored for the
    possibility of an additional severe weather watch to the south of
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231.

    DISCUSSION...The northern (now southwest of Del Rio, TX) of a pair
    of southeastward propagating supercells appears to be undergoing
    upscale growth, with convection beginning to increase along the
    leading edge of strong convective outflow to the south of the
    mid-level cyclonic circulation center. A moist boundary layer
    (including surface dew points just above 70F) near the Rio Grande
    River, into the higher terrain west of the river, remains
    characterized by mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, with CAPE
    perhaps as large as 1500 J/kg into areas just southwest of San
    Antonio and west of Brownsville. 25-30 kt southeasterly inflow of
    this air mass may support considerable further upscale growth during
    the next couple of hours.=20

    Based on evening soundings, lower/mid-levels may be unsaturated
    enough to allow for sufficient cold pool strengthening to support
    increasing potential for strong to severe winds along an
    accelerating gust front. If this occurs, areas across and east of
    the Rio Grande River, particularly near and east through south of
    Eagle Pass, will be increasingly impacted through 04-06Z.

    ..Kerr.. 06/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vXWRDnS1GycHYRRFQwWL0KvnZQBxkTLv1jYK41r9_jqTlmmBCw49EuAT8sIAUYC0iDTBZ_6u$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29340052 29269978 28529910 27379957 27360021 27840101
    28350144 28570112 29340052=20

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