• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0830

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 23:17:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 312317
    SPC MCD 312317=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0830
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0617 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern New Mexico and adjacent
    southwestern Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...

    Valid 312317Z - 010045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229

    SUMMARY...Further intensification of an evolving isolated supercell
    still appears possible into the 6-8 PM MDT time frame, with a
    tendency to move southeastward and remain close to the Guadalupe

    DISCUSSION...Much of the Permian Basin has been stabilized by
    persistent convection and the southwestward advancement of
    conglomerate outflow into the higher terrain. Any continuing
    potential for severe storm development now seems confined to the
    immediate vicinity of the Guadalupe Mountains, where the
    boundary-layer remains characterized by CAPE on the order of
    1000-2000 J/kg, in the presence of generally weak, but strongly
    sheared west-southwesterly ambient mean flow. Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing to the south of Alamogordo, NM, and further intensification into a better organized supercell still appears
    possible, with a tendency to propagate southeastward near the higher
    terrain through 00-02Z.

    ..Kerr.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sk_QG4CL2UWZN8xX9UKFKsXvUKBVLcM0y1RC5QSphgPbRao-10qIOW1zRNDTqJjvRPZIk3sI$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 33080513 31970452 31490438 31670557 32550596 33080513=20

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