• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0829

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 22:49:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 312249
    SPC MCD 312249=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0829
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0549 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southwestern Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...

    Valid 312249Z - 010045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229

    SUMMARY...Discrete supercells may continue to develop across the
    Davis and Glass Mountains vicinity into early evening, perhaps
    gradually beginning to consolidate into cluster while approaching
    the Del Rio, TX vicinity through 7-9 PM CDT. Trends are being
    monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch
    southeast of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229.

    DISCUSSION...Relatively moist easterly/northeasterly near-surface
    flow (associated with convective outflow/rain-cooled air) into the
    northeastern slopes of the Davis and Glass Mountains, is
    contributing to a corridor of strong boundary-layer instability
    across the higher terrain. This is where lower/mid tropospheric
    lapse rates remain steepest, aided by strongest heating and
    boundary-layer mixing, and orographic forcing is contributing to
    continuing thunderstorm initiation.

    It appears that a 40 kt mid-level jet (around 500 mb), within
    otherwise rather modest west-southwesterly deep-layer ambient mean
    flow, is contributing to strong vertical shear, and this will
    continue to support discrete supercell development into early
    evening. Given these profiles, propagation will remain slow and to
    the southeast. This will take storms both into northern Coahuila
    and along the outflow boundary near the Rio Grande River, into areas near/northwest of Del Rio, TX through 00-02Z. It is possible that
    storms and associated outflows might begin to consolidate into an
    upscale growing and organizing cluster.

    ..Kerr.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vde-gGUNiRpLTePDiNNoRfQy4H8IrL2-qioZestEQ1JnlhfKsJhrkhc8a1LVmjjjHMv5-veo$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31050277 30260190 29630096 29110258 29870338 30440403
    30840427 31050277=20

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