• Pacific-NW: Choi-Wan R8

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon May 31 18:13:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 311800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2103 CHOI-WAN (2103)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TS CHOI-WAN IS LOCATED AT 9.7N, 128.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
    CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
    CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
    DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
    SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
    SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
    INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89
    GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
    CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
    NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
    PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
    CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
    INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
    UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
    TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
    CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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