• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0828

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 22:12:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 312212
    SPC MCD 312212=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0828
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0512 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...

    Valid 312212Z - 312345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch #230. Damaging gusts remain the primary concern with a line of
    storms moving across the Watch area for the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCS with an MCV is propagating eastward
    across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #230, mainly south of the
    Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The complex is moving into an
    environment characterized by 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by
    67-70F dewpoints overspread by modest (i.e 6 C/km) mid-level lapse
    rates. While instability is rather modest, up to 50 kts of effective
    bulk shear is present, with deep-layer shear vectors oriented
    roughly orthogonal to the complex. In addition, the MCS is
    traversing a relatively broad baroclinic zone, where localized
    deep-layer ascent is present and is contributing to storm organization/sustenance. As such, the convective line is expected to
    persist across the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #230 with
    damaging gust potential.=20

    A similar kinematic/thermodynamic downstream environment is expected
    east of the ongoing Watch over the next few hours. Storm trends and
    ambient environmental conditions will continue to be monitored for
    either local watch extensions or a separate WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tdnKqehN1EvJ9IUrUuxWSgmb3-n48vzRlp3llgWDsK7-xfx7K0PhPATPKTDich20rS_kxtFl$=
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    LAT...LON 31109840 31479832 32059796 32499764 32579730 32559670
    32379625 32179594 30779620 30459713 30549741 31109840=20

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