• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0826

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 19:15:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311915
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311915=20
    TXZ000-312115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0826
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0215 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of Central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 311915Z - 312115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Destabilization ahead of a convective line segment in
    central Texas will support an increased damaging wind gust threat
    this afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a possible WW.

    DISCUSSION...Deeper convection with a small line segment west of
    Stephenville has been observed over the last hour. Cloud-free areas
    in central Texas has allowed MLCAPE to rise to around 1000 J/kg.
    KDYX radar velocity data show an area of 40-50 kt flow within the
    lowest 1.5 km. With continued surface heating ahead of this activity
    and 35-40 kts of shear, damaging wind gust potential is likely to
    increase this afternoon. Low-level shear near the boundary is also
    sufficient for a brief QLCS tornado. This line segment will
    generally tend to propagate east-southeastward where the airmass is
    more unstable. This would likely take it south of the DFW metro.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v3OdFJFwTXkmqE_Sf80d3Y49IZbBvatHsNV3NUfB-ptmaHuuNEkBcAr1OzJcKAZ8JpNOeVIH$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32089964 32509935 32869877 32759800 32099687 31749657
    31369685 31189763 31209831 31429893 31869946 32089964=20



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