• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0825

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 18:48:09 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311848
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311847=20
    COZ000-NMZ000-312015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0825
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0147 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

    Areas affected...mountain areas of northern New Mexico and southern
    Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 311847Z - 312015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the
    afternoon. Marginally severe hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows
    will be possible. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Several days of convection across the area have left a
    very moist airmass in place. This, coupled with strong diurnal
    heating has, and continue, to support the development of
    thunderstorms along the higher terrain. Most-unstable CAPE values
    range from around 1000 J/kg in central Colorado to nearly 2000 J/kg
    in central New Mexico. However, this region is removed from the
    better flow aloft yielding effective-layer shear values generally
    less than 30 knots, which will limit overall thunderstorm
    organization. Still, given the degree of instability marginally
    severe hail and gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible with the
    strongest thunderstorms.

    A watch is not expected given the highly localized nature of any
    severe potential.

    ..Marsh/Hart.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tfa8pj0GlUYK3yhbfEN3_RPX9wIBGwlEhtei1jeOY5TPXFq0J_kJ2-XuD9ZuzrJ2Sh71q1px$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

    LAT...LON 34720676 34760782 35400853 37850839 38720790 39000690
    38740567 37770516 37030498 36170511 35380550 34850623
    34720676=20



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