• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0824

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 16:53:42 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311653
    SPC MCD 311653=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0824
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1153 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

    Areas affected...Western Upper Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 311653Z - 311900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Small to marginally severe (around 1 inch) hail will be
    possible this afternoon. Wind gust potential will increase as
    surface temperatures warm. No WW is expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed ahead of a compact
    shortwave trough now over the Minnesota arrowhead. These initial
    storms will be capable of small to perhaps marginally severe (around
    1 inch) hail. As surface temperatures continue to warm downstream of
    these storms, the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts will
    increase. Visible satellite also shows cumulus development along a
    lake breeze front near the southern Upper Peninsula. The boundary
    may serve as another focus for development later today. Even if
    storms do not develop along the lake breeze front, storms that
    interact with the boundary may briefly intensify. No WW is expected

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vbQtMb708RumuqKGr9_lfYUySmXLhZ5q-wzBScFOhwgcvO-XhNiu26DtudBT8A2tXbI0Wvdf$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 46708941 46978841 46538687 46128652 45788684 45578739
    45638830 46358957 46708941=20

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