• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0823

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 16:34:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311634
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311633=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-311800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0823
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1133 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

    Areas affected...southeast New Mexico and west Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 311633Z - 311800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across
    the region this afternoon. Large hail and gusty thunderstorm winds
    will be the primary threat, however a couple of tornadoes cannot be
    ruled out. A watch will be needed in the near term.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across east-central New Mexico this
    morning continued to reinforce a westward moving convective outflow
    boundary draped across southeast New Mexico. This boundary will
    continue to move west this afternoon and is expected to serve as a
    focus for thunderstorms. Ahead of the outflow boundary, clear skies
    have allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s F and
    will continue to warm into the 80s F. This, coupled with surface
    dewpoints in the 50s F and steep mid-level-lapse rates approaching 8
    C/km, will allow surface-based CAPE to exceed 2000-3000 J/km.
    Effective-layer shear on the order of 40-50 knots will support the
    potential for supercells capable of producing large hail and gusty
    thunderstorm outflows this afternoon. Although low-level flow is
    relatively weak, the degree of instability and favorable veering
    wind profile may support a couple tornadoes, especially across west
    Texas where discrete cellular mode may persist longer.

    Thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeast New Mexico
    and west Texas this afternoon with initial development across
    southeast New Mexico in the next hour or so and more widespread
    convection developing in the 1-2 PM MDT time frame.=20

    A watch will likely be required in the near term.

    ..Marsh/Hart.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t1azlMgMNzj_giF5Q6pcPCdYYbNDejAFjqTBxy_lLF6R7y6FfssqixUSkfUKHmlicCTXMFHW$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 29000357 30620416 31930518 33040591 33660650 34360677
    34770634 34770538 34040303 33670161 33100101 31030064
    29280102 29620147 29650223 28960288 29000357=20



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