Mesoscale Discussion 0822
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021
Areas affected...south Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 311550Z - 311815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of strong, gusty winds and small
hail will be possible this afternoon. The localized nature of any
severe threat should prevent the need for a watch.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms should develop in the next few hours in
association with increasing low-level convergence along and near the
Gulf Coast sea-breeze. With a weak upper trough over the area
contributing to slightly cooler mid-level temperatures, the
background environment across south Florida will remain largely
unstable, with most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg.
Despite this degree of instability, effective-layer shear will
remain generally at or below 20 knots, limiting thunderstorm
organization and favoring storm-scale interactions with the
sea-breeze to sustain updrafts. The most likely severe threat with
any thunderstorm will be strong, gusty thunderstorm outflows,
although small to marginally severe hail will also be possible.
The localized nature of any severe potential should preclude the
need for any watch this afternoon.
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