• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0822

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 15:50:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311550
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311550=20
    FLZ000-311815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0822
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1050 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

    Areas affected...south Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 311550Z - 311815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of strong, gusty winds and small
    hail will be possible this afternoon. The localized nature of any
    severe threat should prevent the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms should develop in the next few hours in
    association with increasing low-level convergence along and near the
    Gulf Coast sea-breeze. With a weak upper trough over the area
    contributing to slightly cooler mid-level temperatures, the
    background environment across south Florida will remain largely
    unstable, with most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg.
    Despite this degree of instability, effective-layer shear will
    remain generally at or below 20 knots, limiting thunderstorm
    organization and favoring storm-scale interactions with the
    sea-breeze to sustain updrafts. The most likely severe threat with
    any thunderstorm will be strong, gusty thunderstorm outflows,
    although small to marginally severe hail will also be possible.

    The localized nature of any severe potential should preclude the
    need for any watch this afternoon.

    ..Marsh/Hart.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rZqWw1Dzd5ijdbe6XCTyzS3W40oRY7Zz8eTadddTqbSjqU-Rp2xieeg8MmdLj4v_3BW4gZgv$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 25318090 26418185 27328244 27958255 28438180 28308083
    27568045 26758010 25758017 25268044 25318090=20



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