• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0821

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 14:19:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311419
    SPC MCD 311418=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0821
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0918 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

    Areas affected...southeast into east-central New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 311418Z - 311515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms should persist for a few more hours.
    Isolated large hail will be possible, but the sporadic nature of the
    threat should preclude the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across southeast New
    Mexico this morning will periodic indications of large hail per
    MRMS. Origins of these thunderstorms appears to be weak
    southwesterly warm-air advection rooted around 700 mb with
    additional large-scale ascent downstream of an upper trough moving
    into central New Mexico. Forecast soundings have effective-layer
    shear on the order of 40-50 knots and modest lapse rates in the
    700-500 mb range (around 7.5 C/km), which despite being close to the
    base of the updrafts, should be sufficient to support isolated large
    hail with the strongest updrafts.=20

    The overall thermodynamic environment is still recovering from
    widespread convection yesterday, with surface temperatures across
    east-central New Mexico still in the 50s F. Farther southwest, where
    cloud cover is absent, surface temperatures have warmed into the 70s
    F across south-central New Mexico, with surface dewpoint
    temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s, yielding most-unstable CAPE
    values around 1000-2000 J/kg.=20

    Given an unstable source region and the approach of large-scale
    ascent, thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico should continue to
    percolate through the morning before weakening later this morning as
    they move east-northeast, farther away from the unstable source
    region and into an increasingly stable environment.=20

    Later this morning into early afternoon, more robust convection is
    anticipated farther west, within more unstable environment.

    ..Marsh/Hart.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vRsCy1zzWLdLEpZ-maUKbXC3bIQuFHB2Ikj1Ti46IhkogstBekzo3_iuQd8_BptmCQjTy79s$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 33700549 34320554 34760500 34930379 34620316 33230315
    32830353 32840481 33100501 33700549=20

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