• Pacific-EN: TD 2-E D3

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon May 31 09:42:00 2021
    WTPZ42 KNHC 310837

    Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
    300 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021

    Despite its reasonably good satellite presentation, overnight
    satellite-derived wind data indicate that Two-E remains a tropical
    depression. Multiple ASCAT passes show Ten-E has a broad circulation
    with a low-level center that remains displaced southeast of the main
    region of deep convection. Although recent satellite imagery does
    show a new convective burst occurring near the estimated center
    position, the cyclone's lack of improved vertical structure combined
    with scatterometer winds near 25 kt suggest it has yet to
    strengthen. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at a possibly
    generous 30 kt, which is consistent with the T2.0/30 kt subjective
    Dvorak classification received from TAFB.

    The estimated motion, 290/12 kt, is again slightly faster than the
    previous advisory. The guidance indicates the depression should
    maintain a west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days
    as it moves around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.
    The system is expected to gradually slow down as a weakness develops
    in the ridge, and this is when increased spread is noted in the
    global models. The GFS and ECMWF lie on opposite extremes of the
    guidance envelope beyond 72 hours, with the ECWMF showing a faster
    westward motion while the GFS takes the system slowly poleward. The
    latest NHC forecast track remains close to the corrected-consensus
    aid HCCA through this period of increased uncertainty.

    High oceanic heat content, very low vertical wind shear, and a moist
    mid-level environment should support strengthening during the next
    24 hours or so, before increasing vertical wind shear becomes a
    limiting factor. The ECMWF suggests this could occur earlier than
    previously forecast, which is reflected in the latest intensity
    guidance that trends weaker. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast
    is adjusted downward from the previous advisory beyond 24 hours, but
    still lies on the high end of the guidance envelope and above the
    HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It is noted that the HWRF and HMON
    depict more significant strengthening during the next 24 hours,
    which cannot be completely ruled out given the very favorable
    near-term conditions. Beyond day 3, cooler sea-surface temperatures
    and a drier mid-level environment should induce a steady weakening


    INIT 31/0900Z 12.2N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 31/1800Z 12.9N 108.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
    24H 01/0600Z 13.6N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
    36H 01/1800Z 14.2N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 02/0600Z 14.7N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    60H 02/1800Z 15.1N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    72H 03/0600Z 15.3N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
    96H 04/0600Z 15.4N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
    120H 05/0600Z 15.8N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

    Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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