• Pacific-NW: Choi-Wan R6

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon May 31 09:41:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 310600
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2103 CHOI-WAN (2103)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TS CHOI-WAN IS LOCATED AT 9.4N, 129.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
    IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
    STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
    SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
    INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA
    SURFACE AMVS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
    INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
    GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
    NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
    PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
    CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
    OUTPUTS.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
    THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
    INCLUDING GSM.
    =
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