• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0820

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 07:12:35 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 310712
    SPC MCD 310712=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0820
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0212 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of west into west-central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 310712Z - 310945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic hail and strong/gusty winds will remain possible
    through the early morning hours with a cluster of storms. Watch
    issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms is ongoing as of 0710Z across
    part of west TX. Recent area VWPs show 0-2 km south-southeasterly
    winds around 30-40 kt transporting a low-level moisture fetch into
    this convection. Even with this low-level moisture, the mid-level
    lapse rates are not very steep across this region, which along with
    relatively cool surface temperatures is limiting instability. Even
    so, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present downstream into parts
    of west-central TX. Modestly enhanced mid-level winds preceding an
    upper trough over the Southwest are supporting deep-layer shear of
    40-50 kt per latest mesoanalysis estimates, and occasional embedded
    supercell structures have been noted within the line over the past
    hour or so. Isolated instances of marginally severe hail appear
    possible with any supercell that can be sustained. Otherwise,
    sporadic strong/gusty may occur with convective downdrafts. The weak instability should preclude a greater severe threat, and watch
    issuance is not expected.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sGRlKdksNnM28avhcijRbH2y0NE8NCe2lbtvNPQ1YwGxb34raL6ceUKlLGsBLz8jyiXCvccg$=
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    LAT...LON 32520220 33080116 33400066 33359943 32609960 32230025
    32070075 32060220 32520220=20

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