• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0819

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 04:44:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 310444
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310443=20
    TXZ000-310615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0819
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1143 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the Texas Rolling Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227...

    Valid 310443Z - 310615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 227. Large hail remains a concern, particularly with more
    discrete storms. A couple damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...An organized MCS has been developing across parts of
    the Texas Rolling Plains over the past couple of hours,
    characterized by linear mode across Hockley/Terry Counties, and
    preceded by more discrete convection from Lubbock to Scurry
    Counties. A recent uptick in storm intensity has been noted over the
    past hour, with a discrete supercell noted over Garza County. MRMS
    mosaic MESH radar data suggests over 2 inch diameter stones may be
    occurring with this storm. Though boundary-layer stabilization or
    convective overturning has reduced instability across much of
    western Texas, 00Z AMA and MAF soundings showed up 8 C/km 700-500 mb
    lapse rates present, supporting up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE as shown by
    04Z mesoanalysis. As such, a severe hail threat may continue with
    the more robust, discrete storms over the next couple of hours.
    Otherwise, a damaging gust or two may occur with the more linear
    structures.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rzWxWwluqYV2Q9nNvq8yYA_wF6y8s8nNNMCQ1HVRXMC8asaWZSbACZJVnPRyueYZXGj7xl8-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33060292 33690302 34070293 34310230 34440121 34280043
    34030013 33580003 33160015 32920060 32870185 33060292=20



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