• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0817

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 01:59:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 310159
    SPC MCD 310159=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0817
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0859 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the central and eastern Texas Panhandle
    into extreme western Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 226...

    Valid 310159Z - 310330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 226 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 226.
    Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible, with
    the severe threat potentially expanding east of the current Watch.
    Conditions are currently being monitored for a potential downstream
    watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete supercells have gradually been morphing
    into a linear complex with an MCV becoming established across far
    northern Hansford County, TX. Much of the more vigorous convection
    has crossed into a relatively cooler airmass across a
    near-stationary, northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone draped
    across the TX Panhandle. Nonetheless, mid 60sF dewpoints overspread
    by a plume of 7 C/km lapse rates yields over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far
    east as central OK, suggesting that the ongoing storms may persist
    east of the ongoing Tornado Watch. While storms are expected to
    become more linear with time (posing a damaging gust threat), recent
    KAMA VWPs suggest 150+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH may also support a brief
    tornado or two as well with the stronger, longer lasting
    circulations embedded within linear segments. Conditions will
    continue to be monitored for a possible downstream WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ujv3mPw2ZNwWevWbcBNmAbP0YCYvlun3OozCrOV8rSgKjrT4XLCNglSEoQS3Zwcbfkkl6OhX$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35360255 36340196 36720146 36810053 36739964 36389906
    35909891 35579908 35319972 35150056 35030156 35360255=20

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