Mesoscale Discussion 0817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0859 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021
Areas affected...portions of the central and eastern Texas Panhandle
into extreme western Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 226...
Valid 310159Z - 310330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 226 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 226.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible, with
the severe threat potentially expanding east of the current Watch.
Conditions are currently being monitored for a potential downstream
DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete supercells have gradually been morphing
into a linear complex with an MCV becoming established across far
northern Hansford County, TX. Much of the more vigorous convection
has crossed into a relatively cooler airmass across a
near-stationary, northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone draped
across the TX Panhandle. Nonetheless, mid 60sF dewpoints overspread
by a plume of 7 C/km lapse rates yields over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far
east as central OK, suggesting that the ongoing storms may persist
east of the ongoing Tornado Watch. While storms are expected to
become more linear with time (posing a damaging gust threat), recent
KAMA VWPs suggest 150+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH may also support a brief
tornado or two as well with the stronger, longer lasting
circulations embedded within linear segments. Conditions will
continue to be monitored for a possible downstream WW issuance.
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