• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0816

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 31 00:57:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 310057
    SPC MCD 310057=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0816
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0757 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 310057Z - 310200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms has intensified over northeast MN
    this evening. These storms will move toward the Arrowhead region
    with some risk of gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. No watch is anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has recently intensified over
    northeast MN, roughly along a line from northern Aitkin county into
    northern St. Louis county MN. This line of convection is moving
    southeastward at around 30 knots. The environment ahead of the line
    is characterized by dewpoints in the lower 50s and MLCAPE values
    less than 500 J/kg. Low level shear is also relatively weak,
    suggesting the overall risk of organized severe storms is quite
    limited. Nevertheless, forcing along a cold front and weak
    cold-pool generation may result in a few instances of gusty or
    locally damaging wind gusts. The storms should maintain intensity
    for only an hour or two, before nocturnal cooling lessens the CAPE
    and likely ends the risk.

    ..Hart/Guyer.. 05/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o_bdWIRNh29_kmnR6CmJvgkpY07pdUPaSKR15snXVxAKumua8umc5nqM3dxV-zv0Ja7-VSzV$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 46669371 47669249 47779136 47339104 46699203 46349310
    46469360 46669371=20

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