Mesoscale Discussion 0815
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021
Areas affected...portions of central into southeast New Mexico
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227...
Valid 302343Z - 310045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227
SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe threat may linger across
portions of central, eastern, and southeastern New Mexico for at
least a couple more hours. Damaging gusts and large hail are the
main concerns. The best chance for large hail and perhaps a brief
tornado will be with the southernmost storms.
DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters as well as discrete and semi-discrete supercells persist across Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#227. A few of the stronger storms from Chaves to Lea Counties, NM
have a history of producing severe hail and a couple of tornadoes
over the past hour or so. These storms have access to the best
instability (up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and are expected to have the
most robust severe threat across eastern NM through this evening.
Storms farther northwest have been more numerous in nature, with
gradual convective overturning of the environment noted via 23Z
mesoanalysis. Still, an instance or two of hail/wind may accompany
these storms over the next few hours.
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