• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0813

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 30 22:39:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302237=20
    TXZ000-310000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0813
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0537 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

    Areas affected...portions of Texas South Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 302237Z - 310000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe potential is expected to increase over the next few
    hours as storms within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #225 move into
    western Texas from eastern New Mexico. Large hail and damaging winds
    are the main threats with these storms, though a brief tornado
    cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...Discrete to semi-discrete supercells, with 50+ dBZ
    echoes exceeding 45 kft (per latest MRMS mosaic radar data) are
    gradually progressing eastward towards the eastern bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #225 in southeast New Mexico, and are poised to
    moved into western Texas within the next couple of hours. MRMS
    mosaic MESH suggests that severe hail (perhaps briefly reaching 2.0
    inches in diameter) has been occurring with these storms, which are
    progressing into a 7.5 C/km low and mid-level lapse rate
    environment, where 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 40+ kts effective bulk shear
    are present. As such, the potential for large hail and perhaps a
    brief tornado is expected to continue with these storms while they
    remain at least partially discrete. However, latest high-resolution
    guidance suggests that upscale growth into linear segments is likely
    given cold pool mergers in a relatively weak low-level shear
    environment. Damaging gusts would then become the main concern with
    storms that become more linear with time.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tsDJNjb9zZQyiJ2xY-xvOEHVEYqbWgR1l1h3R36uOR4uE6L9AntxHpALk1PEMix58w_HLvwt$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32930298 33890303 34590292 34770249 34790138 34760057
    34500020 34100012 33570016 33010057 32790131 32790196
    32930298=20



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