• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0812

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 30 20:53:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302052=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-302245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0812
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0352 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 302052Z - 302245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop this afternoon posing a risk of
    large hail and gusty winds. Additional thunderstorms will move into
    the area later this afternoon into the evening, posing an additional
    threat of wind and hail.

    DISCUSSION...A hybrid stationary front/outflow boundary currently
    stretches from southeast Colorado, into the far western Oklahoma
    Panhandle, across the far northern Texas Panhandle, and into
    west/southwest Oklahoma this afternoon. To the north of this
    boundary, rain-cooled air and increased cloud cover have left
    temperatures in the 50s and 60s F. To the south of this boundary,
    pockets of heating have occurred through breaks in the cloud cover
    resulting in temperatures warming into the 70s F.=20

    Visible satellite imagery this afternoon have shown a slowly
    increasing trend in the vertical development of the cumulus field
    along this boundary. Recent imagery suggests more robust cumulus
    development across far northwest Texas Panhandle and this area shows
    the most promise of convective initiation in the near term.
    Mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, effective-layer
    shear 35-40 knots, and mid-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km would
    support a large hail and gusty wind threat. A tornado or two may be
    possible with any thunderstorm that interacts with the
    aforementioned stationary front/outflow boundary.

    Later this afternoon and evening, convection will move into this
    region from the northwest as thunderstorms move along the
    aforementioned boundary into northern Texas and western Oklahoma
    Panhandles. Additional thunderstorms should approach the area from
    the west out of eastern New Mexico. Large hail and damaging
    thunderstorm winds will be the primary severe threat with this round
    of storms, although a tornado or two will be possible with any
    cellular convection or convection that interacts with the boundary.

    A watch will likely be needed across parts of this area later this
    afternoon into the evening, although some uncertainty in the timing
    remains. The area will continued to be monitored through the
    afternoon/evening.

    ..Marsh/Goss.. 05/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oA84LDwyvLt2Y_vdavgb5voftk3ffZWIUVctHo4pasQxu6mQ6GPBJBVghBixytBoxPfyW2lQ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 34430295 36970295 36920008 34440004 34430295=20



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