• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0811

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 30 20:38:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302037
    SPC MCD 302037=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0811
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

    Areas affected...Northern/central Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 302037Z - 302230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Small hail and possibly strong, gusty winds this
    afternoon. The threat will diminish by sunset. No WW expected.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures of around -21 C were observed at 500 mb on
    this morning's INL sounding. With the mid-level trough sinking
    southeastward today, temperatures have likely cooled aloft further.
    Weak buoyancy has developed along and ahead of a weak cold front in northwestern Minnesota. A few thunderstorms have developed within
    the last several hours, but have mainly been weak and low-topped. As
    peak heating nears, a few storms may deepen enough to pose a
    marginal severe threat. Limited moisture/buoyancy should generally
    keep hail sub-severe. However, the surface dewpoint/temperature
    spreads (approximately 20-30 F) will allow some stronger outflow
    winds to develop. These gusts are also liable to stay sub-severe at
    35-45 kts. No WW is expected.

    ..Wendt/Goss.. 05/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pI6H29YvlK0NOK8wksu_rrONEPuOn06x_1nbsLGu2MyyPNQI0g0qhITHqknGhc6dJbqlrk9y$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 46049602 47249678 48329640 48979426 48509217 47979158
    47599163 46969232 46179338 45739381 45569435 45739508

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