Mesoscale Discussion 0811
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021
Areas affected...Northern/central Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 302037Z - 302230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Small hail and possibly strong, gusty winds this
afternoon. The threat will diminish by sunset. No WW expected.
DISCUSSION...Temperatures of around -21 C were observed at 500 mb on
this morning's INL sounding. With the mid-level trough sinking
southeastward today, temperatures have likely cooled aloft further.
Weak buoyancy has developed along and ahead of a weak cold front in northwestern Minnesota. A few thunderstorms have developed within
the last several hours, but have mainly been weak and low-topped. As
peak heating nears, a few storms may deepen enough to pose a
marginal severe threat. Limited moisture/buoyancy should generally
keep hail sub-severe. However, the surface dewpoint/temperature
spreads (approximately 20-30 F) will allow some stronger outflow
winds to develop. These gusts are also liable to stay sub-severe at
35-45 kts. No WW is expected.
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