• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0810

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 30 17:08:35 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301708
    SPC MCD 301708=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0810
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1208 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

    Areas affected...southern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 301708Z - 301845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon
    across the southern High Plains. Large hail and gusty winds will be
    the primary threat, although a couple tornadoes will be possible
    into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar trends continue to show
    thunderstorms developing atop the higher terrain of south-central
    New Mexico. These thunderstorms should continue to strengthen this
    afternoon as they develop/evolve in a weakly capped, unstable
    atmosphere (most-unstable CAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg).
    Effective-layer shear on the the order of 30-40 knots will support a
    mixed-mode of supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of
    producing large hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows.

    Large-scale ascent across the region will continue to increase this
    afternoon with the approach of an upper trough. This increase, when
    coupled with diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, should allow
    for additional thunderstorms to develop across southeast Colorado
    and eastern New Mexico. Given the aforementioned background
    environment, large-hail and gusty thunderstorm winds will be the
    primary threats.=20

    Kinematically, weak low-level flow should limit the overall tornado
    potential, despite a favorable veering vertical wind profile. Later
    this evening, the low-level jet should ramp up, enlarging the lower
    levels of the hodograph. As such, the tornado potential across the
    area should maximize later this afternoon and into the early
    evening. However, upscale-transition of initial thunderstorm cells
    will likely be simultaneously occurring. As such, the tornado threat
    will likely maximize with any sustained cellular convection later
    this afternoon and evening, although a tornado or two cannot be
    ruled out before.

    ..Marsh/Goss.. 05/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u2c2JdRNHxWTKf0b9E68G0MtL4pZVnsoE2mgQnTVAV1mtiZAqTF-AN6ffv5XlTFVTDzWSRy5$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32350593 37880572 37830316 32400318 32350593=20

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