• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0809

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 30 16:36:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301636
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301635=20
    FLZ000-301900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0809
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1135 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301635Z - 301900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon
    along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sea breezes. Gusty
    thunderstorm winds will be the primary threat, although small hail
    will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. A watch is
    currently not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating across the Florida Peninsula,
    along with weak low-level flow, should allow for both the Atlantic
    and Gulf of Mexico coastal sea-breezes to advance inland this
    afternoon. Localized convergence along the sea-breezes and weak
    large-scale ascent associated with a weak upper trough will support thunderstorm development through the afternoon. The background
    environment for these thunderstorms will be moist and unstable, with most-unstable CAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and
    little-to-no convective inhibition. Weak effective-layer shear
    should preclude more robust thunderstorm organization, leading to
    predominantly cellular and multi-cellular cluster modes, with
    storm-scale outflows interacting with the sea-breezes driving the
    development of new updrafts. Gusty thunderstorm outflows will be the predominant threat through the afternoon, although localized small-to-marginally severe hail will also be possible with the most
    intense updrafts.=20

    A watch is currently not anticipated given the transient and highly
    localized nature of any organized severe threat. However, convective
    trends will be monitored.

    ..Marsh/Goss.. 05/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o2tAJcktnDFiY2fQwwYVPNF2yNOTQ-s04bczskqj84GRhgmgO814Knfs8z65Kceb3hO96FH-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 26628205 27528249 28538249 28838208 29018109 27958058
    26808012 25878015 25318038 25288088 26018163 26628205=20



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