• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0806

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 30 04:37:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 300437
    SPC MCD 300437=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0806
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1137 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast CO...Southwest KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 300437Z - 300530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A small thunderstorm cluster may move from southeast CO
    into far southwest KS overnight, with a threat of isolated severe
    wind gusts and hail.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified across
    southeast CO, within an environment characterized by rather strong
    easterly low-level flow (noted in surface observations and the KPUX
    VWP), moderate instability, and effective shear of 30-40 kt. There
    is some potential for the ongoing storms to organize into a cluster
    and move east-southeastward overnight. The strongest storms will
    pose a threat of hail, with some increasing potential for isolated
    severe wind gusts if a forward-propagating cluster can organize with

    The longevity and eastward progression of ongoing storms remain
    somewhat uncertain due to increasing MLCINH downstream, but at least
    an isolated hail/wind threat may move from southeast CO into far
    southwest KS overnight in conjunction with ongoing storms or renewed development along developing outflows. Watch issuance is possible if
    sustained upscale growth appears imminent.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vYmEio06MIxXMffku8gleEs5hdHfh7DbHDPe3civ73DKEZTnQM3Zf7dMAswUbhz3AONdhZOm$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38090367 38100246 38050173 37100149 37100262 37160323
    37230363 37720356 38090367=20

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