• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0805

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 30 02:21:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 300221
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300220=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0805
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0920 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast NM...Western OK Panhandle...Northwest TX
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224...

    Valid 300220Z - 300345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The supercell in the western OK Panhandle will continue to
    pose a threat of tornadoes and very large hail in the short term,
    while the increasing convection in northeast NM will also continue
    to pose a severe threat. The threat should gradually spread
    southeastward with time tonight into the northwest TX Panhandle.

    DISCUSSION...At 0215Z, an intense supercell is ongoing across
    Cimarron County, Oklahoma. Despite gradual nocturnal cooling across
    the region, this cell continues to be sustained by moderate
    instability and increasing southeasterly low-level inflow, as noted
    in recent OK Mesonet observations. As long as this cell can remain
    surface based, it will continue to pose a threat of a tornado and
    very large hail as it moves slowly southeastward.=20

    Further southwest, convection has gradually increased in coverage
    and intensity across northeast NM. These storms will pose a threat
    of hail and locally damaging wind, and a tornado cannot be ruled out
    with any supercell than can move eastward into a region of somewhat
    better low-level moisture and instability across far northeast NM.=20

    While increasing MLCINH may tend to limit the discrete surface-based
    supercell risk with time, the increasing low-level jet may foster
    gradual upscale growth, as outflows consolidate into northeast NM
    and the northwest TX Panhandle. This would increase the risk of
    locally damaging winds as the threat gradually spreads
    southeastward.

    ..Dean.. 05/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!se5YhFUq8x4JHCJjcDgH5pEABTh7XW1eI21BbIiF1LRyOlThp6nbjs5OqVXEoP25N0WPs34K$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35470435 35890461 36840395 37060314 37050245 36900189
    36630169 36280180 35970210 35580270 35470435=20



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