• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0804

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 29 23:31:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292331
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292330=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0804
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0630 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

    Areas affected...Far southeast CO...Far northeast NM...Western OK Panhandle...Northwest TX Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 223...

    Valid 292330Z - 300100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 223 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief
    tornado continues across southeast Colorado this evening. Some
    severe threat may spread out of WW 223 into far northeast NM and the
    western TX/OK Panhandles, with new severe thunderstorm watch
    issuance possible.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms across far southeast CO will
    continue to pose a severe threat into early evening, as moderate
    instability is maintained near and downstream of the cluster.
    Maintenance and potential upscale growth of this cluster is possible
    with time, as a southeasterly low-level jet increases tonight. With
    strong MLCINH noted to the east, the cluster would likely take on a
    more southeasterly motion if it survives, spreading a severe threat
    into portions of far northeast NM and the western OK/northwest TX
    Panhandles. Large hail will probably remain the most likely hazard
    in the short term, associated with stronger multicells or transient
    supercells within the cluster. A somewhat greater severe wind risk
    may evolve with time, especially if more substantial upscale growth
    can occur.=20

    Downstream watch issuance into portions of the western TX/OK
    Panhandles and possibly far northeast NM is possible if trends
    support a substantial severe threat into these areas later this
    evening.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ocVGo5j6TtUGaA2U-YzDhBKSnLfEBz1F9VPH-gkRdnO857KDy58FOSfI163tNHi4K3sVRucz$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37280388 37740239 37180217 35840181 35750319 36120368
    36530388 37040418 37330383 37280388=20



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