• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0802

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 29 19:51:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291951
    SPC MCD 291951=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0802
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0251 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

    Areas affected...east-central New Mexico southward into far west

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 291951Z - 292145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop across eastern New Mexico this
    afternoon into this evening across east-central and southeast New
    Mexico. Large hail and gusty winds should be the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates several
    failed attempts at deep, moist convection across the higher terrain
    of south-central New Mexico, within a broad, weak moist-upslope
    regime. These failed attempts can likely be attributed in some part
    to warm upper-level temperatures associated with broad riding
    traversing New Mexico this afternoon and evening. However, with
    continued moistening and heating, it is anticipated that at least
    one or two attempts at deep, moist convection will sustain itself by
    early evening. This scenario is supported by recent high-resolution
    CAM guidance such as the HRRR. Should deep, moist convection sustain
    itself, steep low-to-mid-level lapse rates and long
    mid-to-upper-level hodographs suggest that large hail and gusty
    outflows will be possible this afternoon and evening, with hail
    being the predominant threat.

    Farther south, sustained convection is occurring across the higher
    terrain of far west Texas. Through the afternoon, sustained
    convection should remain tied to the terrain and may pose a hail
    threat in the more robust updrafts.=20

    At this time, convective coverage may remain sufficiently sparse to
    preclude the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, but trends will
    be monitored through the afternoon.

    ..Marsh/Hart.. 05/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o67AeMaZeHuTDBtw85tnLS0RCo58TQnWsT91gGrN1dTGcYFyopUlnAaamGwnQFypGDH3aYC4$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32940331 29010363 30720557 32650592 35160578 36110387
    35630314 32940331=20

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