• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0801

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 29 18:58:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291858
    SPC MCD 291858=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0801
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 291858Z - 292100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
    afternoon with a risk for potentially very large hail and damaging
    winds. A tornado or two is also possible. Trends are being monitored
    and a watch is likely prior to 21z.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are beginning to develop across
    the higher terrain of central CO at 1845z, and additional isolated
    storms are expected to develop the remainder of this afternoon. A
    weak surface low was located south of La Junta CO at 18z with a
    moist southeasterly low-level upslope flow across the discussion
    area. Surface dew points in the low 50s combined with steep
    mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 8 deg C/km) will result in
    MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Modest westerly mid-level
    flow will increase with time and contribute to west/northwesterly
    deep shear averaging 40 kts.

    A supercell storm mode is favored, with a risk for large/very large
    hail and strong wind gusts. Locally backed/enhanced low-level flow,
    especially near the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa, may support
    stronger low-level rotation and some risk for a tornado.=20=20

    Convective/observational trends are being monitored and a watch is
    likely prior to 21z.

    ..Bunting/Hart.. 05/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uMKRqlpyAgU3dJ4lHVj_9ApVJDTJhVVtN0ABnXznnnr6tqg8bJmzsykbdR6XJTu_BOay5RY0$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38900434 39690402 39840345 39650306 39330309 38970305
    38080295 37660239 37290242 37090246 37110334 37670419

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