• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0800

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 29 16:37:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291637
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291637=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-291830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0800
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1137 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast VA...much of central/eastern NC...and
    portions of eastern SC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 291637Z - 291830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this
    afternoon with a risk for strong/possibly severe wind gusts. The
    overall severe risk should remain isolated and thus a watch is not
    currently anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A cold front extends from the lower Delmarva peninsula
    southwest to western SC at 16z. South of this front, temperatures
    have warmed into the 80s, combining with mostly upper 60s surface
    dew points to result in MLCAPE generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg
    range. Thunderstorms have developed within a confluence zone across
    eastern NC, and additional thunderstorm development is expected
    along and in advance of the front as heating combines with frontal
    convergence this afternoon, further reducing remaining CINH.=20
    Southwesterly mid-level flow averages 25-35 kts, and this should
    contribute to organized multicell storms and perhaps transient
    supercell structures. Strong/damaging wind gusts will be the main
    severe weather risk with storms.

    Overall, the risk for damaging wind gusts should remain isolated,
    and as a result a watch is not expected.

    ..Bunting/Hart.. 05/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tKUVNHMe_UKNetjHz5P7S3PsFIxAIBIrB_DASW_WaR-Je-HHbUaC18FRMQIgOB__91yH2Tp8$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 32897989 34248069 35018108 35798091 36018066 36237971
    36457815 36997688 37047617 36707577 35897543 35507541
    35287542 35067572 33107876 32897989=20



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