• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0799

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 29 15:09:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291509
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291509=20
    TXZ000-291645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0799
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1009 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021

    Areas affected...South TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 291509Z - 291645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm intensity is possible over the
    next few hours with a risk for isolated strong/severe wind gusts. A
    watch is not currently anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Latest KBRO reflectivity trends show thunderstorms
    associated with a long-lived MCS continuing to move southeast, with
    some intermittent increase in updraft intensity. Despite
    substantial MCS-associated high-level clouds extending downstream,
    the presence of mid-upper 70s dew points has contributed to strong surface-based instability. Further, 25-30 kts of mid-level flow
    will provide a favorable environment for continued
    re-intensification of individual storms and perhaps some increase in organization of the convective complex, which would increase the
    risk for more concentrated damaging wind potential as the system
    approaches the coast.

    A watch is not anticipated, however trends will continue to be
    monitored.

    ..Bunting/Hart.. 05/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!viTir3EYPmReCDLdUAoRr-hKuk2w0MB8EnD1OahI4jrGImbSZDOL4DQcqFycUSbT9u_RObQ_$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

    LAT...LON 25949718 25879746 26049774 26079816 26259866 26409907
    26579913 26979921 27179878 27279806 27279751 27279742
    26499720 25949718=20



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