• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0798

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 29 06:35:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290635
    SPC MCD 290634=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0798
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0134 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Edwards Plateau into south-central

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 290634Z - 290900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe/damaging wind gusts may continue with a cluster of
    storms. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of storms will probably continue southeastward early this morning along the MLCAPE gradient present
    across the Edwards Plateau. Although some convective inhibition is
    present across this region, persistent 30-35 kt low-level
    southeasterly winds indicated on the KDFX VWP will maintain a fetch
    of moist boundary-layer air ahead of these storms. KE41 in west TX
    recently gusted to 51 kt as the cluster moved through, and enhanced
    outbound velocities have been observed from the KMAF radar. Strong
    deep-layer shear will likely support continued organization with
    this cluster in the short term, and the presence of steep mid-level
    lapse rates observed on the 00Z DRT sounding are contributing to
    substantial MUCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) per latest mesoanalysis
    estimates. Although it remains unclear how long the cluster will
    persist since some MLCIN is present, a threat for at least isolated severe/damaging winds will probably continue for a few hours early
    this morning. A somewhat greater severe threat should remain
    confined along and south of an outflow boundary from earlier
    convection that is present across this region.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 05/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qPNquKhCkU2MPq2gN01tjPQbRPMqtPVguYUld1aro8qLW8oveG2yhBlJuoxBuCaID_VQOxEK$=
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    LAT...LON 30780170 31050134 31650043 30909970 29379925 29059886
    28539876 28079932 28020007 28380040 29040074 29380110
    29680144 29770172 30640207 30780170=20

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