• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0797

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 29 04:22:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290422
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290422=20
    TXZ000-290615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0797
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1122 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains into southwestern
    Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220...222...

    Valid 290422Z - 290615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220, 222
    continues.

    SUMMARY...It is not certain a new severe weather watch will be
    issued at current Midnight watch expiration, but trends are being
    monitored for this possibility. At least isolated strong to severe
    storm development may persist into the overnight hours, mainly near
    the Pecos River into the higher terrain to the southwest.

    DISCUSSION...The south-southeastward propagating convective system
    has undergone substantive weakening across parts of the Texas South
    Plains, as low-level inflow has generally become progressively less
    unstable. However, 55-65+ kt inbound velocities have been evident
    in the lowest 1-2 km on Midland radar, associated with convective
    outflow tending to surge out ahead of the weakening convective line.
    This should begin to weaken across and southeast of the Midland
    area as convection continues to weaken. However, upslope flow into
    the higher terrain across and southwest of the Pecos River could
    maintain or support additional vigorous thunderstorm development
    through 06-07Z. This is where steep lapse rates associated with
    capping elevated mixed-layer air continues to support large CAPE.=20
    In the presence of strong shear (largely due to pronounced veering
    of lower to mid tropospheric wind fields with height), isolated to
    widely scattered supercell development remains possible, posing a
    risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 05/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vZmSAK53zfoszb1jKKhhC04Hxfj_Z928tAt4V1IVj3sj9Ai_5ozdy5pBdIE3jtyS2un-8nC9$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31710410 31950284 31680197 30860161 30860177 30250189
    30450287 30680313 31190377 31710410=20



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