• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0796

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 29 03:16:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290316
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290315=20
    TXZ000-290445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0796
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1015 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of south central Texas into middle Texas
    coastal areas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221...

    Valid 290315Z - 290445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensities, in general, are beginning to
    diminish, but the risk for strong surface gusts will continue with
    lingering storms spreading into middle Texas coastal areas through
    Midnight-1 AM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...A large convective system, including one embedded MCV
    currently southwest of College Station, and a trailing downburst
    producing cluster (with a recorded SAT ASOS gust to 67 kt)
    east-southeast of San Antonio, continues a south-southeastward
    propagation toward middle Texas coastal areas. Activity has
    exhibited recent, general weakening trends, and probably is being
    limited by the lack of stronger low-level southerly ambient flow.=20
    However, the inflow environment remains characterized by sizable
    CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of modest deep-layer
    shear. And there appears potential for strong surface gusts to
    develop to the south of the MCV, to the west and south of the
    Greater Houston area, with additional updraft intensification and
    locally strong downburst development still possible along the
    trailing composite outflow boundary into the Palacios vicinity
    through 04-06Z.

    ..Kerr.. 05/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!twelQ8jjEqDIPw2rigtsfgPBf52soIMJlKBFo9MvCf5hVMWnpymjXk-YW7IohuDsQRlPxwI0$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29169823 29059735 29199635 29729565 29049516 28489606
    28269694 28269784 28719868 29169823=20



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