• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0794

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 29 00:59:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290059
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290058=20
    TXZ000-290300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0794
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0758 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of south central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221...

    Valid 290058Z - 290300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A rapid increase and intensification of thunderstorm
    activity appears possible across the Greater San Antonio area
    through 9-10 PM CDT, posing a risk for frequent cloud to ground
    lightning, large, potentially damaging hail, heavy rainfall and a
    few strong downbursts.

    DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent associated with a zone of enhanced
    warm advection along a mid-level baroclinic zone, coupled with lift
    along and above southward advancing cold pools may contribute to
    rapidly increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development across
    the Greater San Antonio area between now and 02-03Z. A seasonably
    moist boundary layer across this region appears characterized by
    large CAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg, in the presence of modest to weak, but
    strongly sheared westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow.=20=20

    A couple of supercell structures are ongoing along the southward
    advancing cold pools, with potential for considerable further
    upscale growth and organization, posing a risk for large, damaging
    hail and, increasingly, strong surface gusts near and south of San
    Antonio.

    ..Kerr.. 05/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uFdHD4_ttknTFR2SUs0R5p6CjDcUy_EbcGrIMKIFxwW0OdW6zEjYZgtbl2JdVNOw-eN47TKV$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29929916 29919866 29779747 29239713 28949858 29279987
    29749970 29929916=20



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