• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0793

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 29 00:18:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290018=20
    TXZ000-290145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0793
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0718 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Pecos Valley into Edwards Plateau of
    Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220...

    Valid 290018Z - 290145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered intense storms posing a risk for large
    hail and locally strong surface gusts will probably persist at least
    into the 9-10 PM CDT time frame, in a corridor west-southwest of
    Midland into areas southeast of Junction.

    DISCUSSION...A zone of strong differential surface heating, near the
    leading edge of a slowly southwestward advancing intrusion of cooler
    air and convective outflow, has become a focus for strong
    boundary-layer destabilization and intensifying thunderstorm
    development. In the presence of modest to weak, but strongly
    sheared west-northwesterly ambient deep-layer mean flow, storms
    probably will continue to strengthen and organize, at least into the
    02-03Z time frame. This may include a couple of supercells posing a
    risk for large hail and locally strong surface gusts, given
    thermodynamic profiles characterized by a very warm and deeply mixed
    boundary layer, steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates and large
    CAPE.

    ..Kerr.. 05/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p2EGT7CczatLCWTlTeItEAsS2fjd61gPXuoc5ozcrJPWTt8qRAsSQUL4cwEJ9J5TD_CkXqn7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32060271 31520164 30990064 30309932 30250072 30880217
    31450317 31850348 32060271=20



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