• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0792

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 23:50:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282350
    SPC MCD 282349=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0792
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0649 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of east central New Mexico and adjacent
    portions of west Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219...

    Valid 282349Z - 290115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219

    SUMMARY...Storms may continue to pose a risk for large hail, and
    perhaps a brief tornado, but strong surface gusts probably will
    become the more prominent hazard as activity continues to
    consolidate and overspread the Clovis, NM vicinity through 7-9 PM

    DISCUSSION...Consolidating convection near and south through
    southwest of Tucumcari might have been aided by forcing associated
    with weak short wave troughing progressing east of the southern
    Rockies. This is embedded within generally weak (10-20 kt)
    west-northwesterly ambient deep-layer mean flow, but deep-layer
    shear is strong, largely due to pronounced veering of winds with

    Southeasterly near-surface flow across the Texas South Plains into
    eastern New Mexico is maintaining sufficient moisture to support
    CAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg (larger toward the Texas South Plains),
    within a deeply mixed boundary layer, beneath steep mid-level lapse
    rates. As convection continues to develop southeastward into this
    environment, a congealing surface cold pool may strengthen, with
    forcing along its leading edge maintaining vigorous thunderstorm

    It is possible that isolated discrete supercell structures could
    continue to form near and just ahead of the cold pool, but
    convection seems likely to otherwise consolidate into an organizing
    convective system, with strong surface gusts becoming a more
    prominent threat as activity spreads across and southeast of the
    Clovis, NM vicinity through 01-03Z.

    ..Kerr.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s1uB2l_CDcpB0gnAyWZLaHItHvRvL0Xg2WN80zFqEKIRi1bLMWE-k4DCJgwOfT4iocivcB8G$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35270285 35000219 33950241 33680371 33700408 33910448
    34020453 34310362 34770323 35270285=20

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