• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0791

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 23:19:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282319
    SPC MCD 282318=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0791
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0618 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...far eastern Virginia into southern Maryland

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 282318Z - 290045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong storms are expected to continue for a couple more
    hours. A damaging gust or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW
    issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...An uptick in convective intensity has been noted with
    discrete storms traversing a warm front across far eastern Virginia,
    with MRMS mosaic radar data showing 50 dBZ extending up to 25 kft
    with some of the stronger cells. KDOX has also shown some transient
    rotation associated with these storms as well. MLCAPE is roughly 500
    J/kg on the warm side of the front. However, recent KDOX VWPs show
    around 250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present, with RAP forecast soundings
    suggesting that much of the SRH is within the effective inflow
    layer. As such, a damaging gust or a brief tornado may occur before
    boundary layer stabilization reduces the severe threat. Nonetheless,
    the severe threat is expected to remain sparse enough to preclude a
    WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sWW_bb5OXR4HHfkZaDuB-yHiMjzxBSssWi0ihCZSE20l6Z9DMA4m4XsdCucs8bOYONZH79gE$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37687685 38267712 38537700 38577629 38407545 38097527
    37667538 37557639 37687685=20

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