• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0787

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 19:57:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281957
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281956=20
    VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-282200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0787
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0256 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 281956Z - 282200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across eastern Virginia will
    continue to pose a threat for gusty winds and hail before crossing
    the Chesapeake. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this
    afternoon farther west posing an additional threat for wind as they
    move east. A watch is currently not expected, but trends will be
    monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A relatively strong coastal front remains draped across
    the Chesapeake Bay area, with easterly flow off the cooler Atlantic
    waters to the north and warm southerly flow to the south. To the
    south of this front, isolated thunderstorms developed earlier this
    afternoon within a zone of strong surface heating (surface
    temperatures greater than 90F) and modest low-level warm-air
    advection. The warm, moist low levels have contributed to
    most-unstable CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg across a small
    corridor of eastern Virginia despite weak mid-level lapse rates (on
    the order of 5-6 C/km). Gusty thunderstorm outflow winds will remain
    possible with the stronger updrafts, although a brief tornado
    potential will exist with any thunderstorm moving across the coastal
    front where backed surface winds may support enhanced low-level
    helical flow.

    High-resolution convection permitting models, such as the HRRR and
    experimental WoFS guidance, continue to suggest additional
    thunderstorms may develop across central Virginia this afternoon as
    increased ascent from an approaching mid-level trough encounters the aforementioned unstable environment. These thunderstorms will also
    pose a threat for gusty thunderstorm winds as they move east,
    although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any thunderstorm
    that interacts with the backed low-level flow in and near the
    aforementioned coastal front.

    At this time thunderstorm coverage is anticipated to remain sparse
    enough to preclude the need for a watch, but conditions will
    continue to be monitored.

    ..Marsh/Hart.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!snJHb8ckImHUHtAmD-Ps6Pqc45ctLUfJq8XXDtJqoNtELRzstK_EiT8D_aQ1ZQHczPdCHupz$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36788051 38017989 38907887 38877755 38397632 37487584
    36877611 36667693 36627876 36788051=20



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