• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0786

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 19:33:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281933
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281933=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-282130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0786
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0233 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...the Permian Basin region of western Texas into the
    Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 281933Z - 282130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to evolve in the vicinity of
    the cold front over the next 1-2 hours, spreading southeastward with
    time. Risk for very large hail and locally damaging winds will
    likely require WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated ongoing/elevated
    storms over the Texas South Plains vicinity an eastward into the Big
    Country are gradually increasing in coverage, while low cloud cover
    just south of this convection, and just to the cool side of the cold
    front, continues to gradually erode.=20=20

    Meanwhile, strong destabilization is underway near and south of the
    front, where daytime heating of a moist (mid 60s dewpoints) boundary
    layer, beneath very steep lapse rates aloft, is now yielding
    mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg.=20=20

    Storm development is expected to occur in the vicinity of the front
    over the next 1 to 2 hours, west of ongoing strong/severe storms
    occurring within WW 218, as additional heating/destabilization
    occurs. With favorably veering/increasing flow with height, storms
    will rapidly organize/become severe, with very large hail likely to
    be the primary risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible, particularly near any organizing bands of storms which may evolve.=20
    Given this gradually evolving risk, WW issuance will likely be
    required.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pzK1lCP3Y0au-3215nPy3Uj-DTMCnVOoiMdHa43YM4p1xk3BTB2eZ56fm57KVLAa17uHKBDX$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32350335 33270258 33090137 31979888 30359890 29049990
    29300069 29900183 31110280 32350335=20



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