• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0785

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 18:04:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281804
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281803=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-281900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0785
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0103 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and into adjacent portions of
    Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 281803Z - 281900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm development is expected across eastern New Mexico in
    the next 1 to 3 hours, which will likely require eventual WW
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows continued
    erosion of low cloud cover across eastern New Mexico, as a cold
    front has pushed westward into this area. Resulting diurnal heating
    has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values to 1500 J/kg in northeastern New
    Mexico, and as high as 2500 J/kg farther south, as a result of very
    steep lapse rates aloft atop upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints.

    With easterly/southeasterly low-level upslope flow across eastern
    New Mexico and presence of the aforementioned cold front, storm
    development -- now underway over the high terrain from Las Vegas to
    Raton -- should begin in the next couple of hours farther east, per
    current indications with respect to the cu field.

    Initial storms are expected to organize/acquire rotation -- aided by
    favorably veering/increasing flow with height. Large hail is
    expected initially, followed by and accompanying/increasing wind
    risk with time as storms grow upscale linearly and shift
    southeastward. The evolving risk will likely require eventual WW
    issuance.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o6Q7H3wWcYKXfMxGucJhWsw5fXG3c2WuMV2Wo2HTLja07XHI5T84p4PwU94TkLLGsu8Dp1O2$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36590451 36400373 35520335 34690295 33890196 32300076
    31810234 32230446 34150585 35170571 36590451=20



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