• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0784

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 17:50:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281750
    SPC MCD 281749=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0784
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1249 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...portions of West Texas including the Big Bend area

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 281749Z - 281915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms initiating over the higher terrain of far West
    Texas may require WW issuance for associated large hail/damaging
    wind risk.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows cumulus growth
    occurring over the Davis Mountains at this time, on the western
    fringe of moisture return occurring within the easterly low-level
    flow regime. With very steep lapse rates atop the moist lower
    levels, and strong heating underway, an axis of mixed-layer CAPE in
    excess of 3000 J/kg continues to expand westward across the Pecos
    River into the Big Bend area of Texas. As such, expect at least
    isolated storm development to evolve from the aforementioned cumulus
    growth over the higher terrain.

    With the easterly/southeasterly low-level winds veering to westerly
    in excess of 30 kt in the 500 to 300 mb layer, deep-layer shear
    through the cloud-bearing layer is more than sufficient -- in tandem
    with the very favorable thermodynamics -- to support supercell
    evolution, and attendant risk for very large hail, and locally
    severe gusts. Storm coverage remains the only question at this
    point, and so will continue to monitor cu field evolution and any
    signs that eventual convective coverage may become sufficient to
    warrant WW issuance.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sc9ob5lSVEVAI_PFam-m_x8dL044FCYPXoballxexWzcjyFdAjyKF8Zsy5_E91BAIpeglZtj$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29710450 30980391 31240324 30920225 30450164 29790178
    28900319 29710450=20

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