• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0783

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 16:17:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281617
    SPC MCD 281616=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0783
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1116 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 281616Z - 281745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...An increase in severe risk may evolve over the next 1 to 2
    hours across portions of central Texas. WW may become necessary if
    trends persist.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a small cluster of
    thunderstorms that has developed in the vicinity of western Comanche
    County. The storms appear to be developing near the intersection of
    a remnant outflow boundary -- extending southeastward into the
    Houston area -- and the synoptic front moving southward across North Texas.=20=20

    Steep lapse rates in place across the region are contributing to
    substantial CAPE -- which should support continued storm development
    near this boundary intersection. While low-level flow remains a bit
    weak and disjointed, moderate mid-level westerlies will be
    sufficient to allow some updraft organization/mid-level rotation, as
    storms develop/spread east-southeastward with time. Given the
    thermodynamics, stronger storms will be capable of producing large
    hail. In addition, gusty winds will be possible with storms near
    and to the warm side of the surface front, and a brief tornado also
    cannot be ruled out as storms interact with the surface boundaries.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uRb-uHJpBm9kE8EIC3fW4-wmBCV6mkjSXbdIUwZtPGmXwpiUAYy6-_WDb1UC9AxvfDzdMQUk$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32129952 32339852 32309775 31639576 30569573 30309663
    31129902 31729992 32129952=20

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