• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0782

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 10:11:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281011
    SPC MCD 281010=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0782
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0510 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far eastern NM into northwest TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 281010Z - 281215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds may occur for
    the next couple of hours with storms moving eastward. Watch issuance
    is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed early this morning
    along/near a cold front across far eastern NM into northwest TX.
    Easterly low-level upslope flow noted on the KLBB VWP is likely
    supporting this activity. Even though deep-layer flow appears rather
    weak, around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear is present. This should be
    enough to foster continued storm organization in the short term. A
    outflow boundary from earlier convection has surged well south of
    these ongoing storms, which is limiting boundary-layer moisture.
    Still, steep mid-level lapse rates remain across this region. MUCAPE
    around 1500-2000 J/kg coupled with the sufficient effective bulk
    shear suggests some potential for mainly elevated supercells posing
    an isolated large hail threat for the next couple of hours. A recent
    measured wind gust to 46 kt was observed at Childress TX with one of
    these storms, and occasional strong/gusty may also occur. Current
    expectations are for the hail/wind threat to remain too isolated to
    warrant watch issuance early this morning.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pg1B95bFasymFZu2dC1Tk1oRPcpV4hbFLTJJ_tBW8drOE_VuvjTUu9iwDRWVwYcBu48snK7E$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34810379 34950367 34840231 34690032 34399975 34159922
    33719944 33800061 33960247 34320354 34810379=20

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