• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0782

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 10:11:19 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1622196686-51543-2062
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 281011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281010=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-281215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0782
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0510 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far eastern NM into northwest TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 281010Z - 281215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds may occur for
    the next couple of hours with storms moving eastward. Watch issuance
    is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed early this morning
    along/near a cold front across far eastern NM into northwest TX.
    Easterly low-level upslope flow noted on the KLBB VWP is likely
    supporting this activity. Even though deep-layer flow appears rather
    weak, around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear is present. This should be
    enough to foster continued storm organization in the short term. A
    outflow boundary from earlier convection has surged well south of
    these ongoing storms, which is limiting boundary-layer moisture.
    Still, steep mid-level lapse rates remain across this region. MUCAPE
    around 1500-2000 J/kg coupled with the sufficient effective bulk
    shear suggests some potential for mainly elevated supercells posing
    an isolated large hail threat for the next couple of hours. A recent
    measured wind gust to 46 kt was observed at Childress TX with one of
    these storms, and occasional strong/gusty may also occur. Current
    expectations are for the hail/wind threat to remain too isolated to
    warrant watch issuance early this morning.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pg1B95bFasymFZu2dC1Tk1oRPcpV4hbFLTJJ_tBW8drOE_VuvjTUu9iwDRWVwYcBu48snK7E$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 34810379 34950367 34840231 34690032 34399975 34159922
    33719944 33800061 33960247 34320354 34810379=20



    ------------=_1622196686-51543-2062
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1622196686-51543-2062--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)