• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0781

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 07:33:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280733
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280733=20
    TXZ000-280930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0781
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0233 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of north TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 280733Z - 280930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds and hail may continue to occur for a couple
    more hours with a long lived supercell early this morning.

    DISCUSSION...A long lived supercell continues to move generally
    eastward across part of north TX early this morning. Outflow from
    earlier storms has surged well south of this storm. But, MUCAPE
    around 1500-2000 J/kg is still present to the north of this boundary
    and ahead of the supercell. Recent VWPs from the KFWS radar show a
    veering and strengthening wind profile with height through mid
    levels, and 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear will be sufficient to
    support continued storm organization in the short term. The TDFW
    radar shows very strong inbound velocities, and there is some
    potential for these wind to reach the surface and cause damage as
    the storm approaches Denton TX and locations to the east in the next
    1-2 hours. Isolated large hail may also occur. Given that there is
    only one supercell ongoing at the moment, the overall severe threat
    is expected to remain too isolated to justify watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o39qid4wgP6AzD0QuQCdxiGmVEMzm0HGpZBCJBesLoPMiv6E5axOmBgBf08yeGYsrgQTdYyZ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...

    LAT...LON 33249771 33509741 33439654 33269574 32969580 32839605
    32949687 33089759 33249771=20



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