• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0780

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 03:24:47 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280324
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280324=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-280500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0780
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1024 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of northwestern into north central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216...

    Valid 280324Z - 280500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some risk for hail and gusty winds may continue in
    stronger storms spreading south of the Red River through at least
    Midnight-2 AM CDT. However, severe weather potential, in general,
    appears low enough that a new severe weather watch will not be
    needed.

    DISCUSSION...Steep lapse rates, associated with remnants of the more
    strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer and warmer elevated
    mixed-layer air, are still supporting large CAPE in the vicinity of
    weak low pressure at the intersection of a southward advancing cold
    front and conglomerate convective outflow boundary. Given this
    environment, it is possible that at least weak large-scale ascent,
    aided by low-level convergence and warm advection focused to the
    northeast of the low, could continue to support vigorous
    thunderstorm development another several hours. In the presence of
    strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer, generally above the
    leading edge of the southward advancing cooler air, some of this
    activity might continue to pose some risk for severe hail and strong
    surface gusts. However, with the instability gradually waning, and
    southerly low-level pre-frontal/cold pool flow remaining generally
    weak, there is little to suggest a substantive increase in storm
    intensities and severe weather potential beyond what is ongoing now,
    as progresses south of the Red River.

    ..Kerr.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uz7GTccj_tXGfuhmKfrrZwQtm2VVkO-PQQjtjhElTsF2USCXc8gMSlnTlSZ_zzMk2fJvznNR$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

    LAT...LON 33879884 33909748 32669760 32519877 33330024 34119970
    33879884=20



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