• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0779

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 28 02:27:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280227
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280227=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-280400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0779
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0927 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

    Areas affected...parts of central into northern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217...

    Valid 280227Z - 280400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    #217. Damaging winds remains the primary threat with the stronger
    storms, though some severe hail and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...An outflow-dominant MCS is entering Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch #217. MRMS mosaic radar data shows 30 dBZ cores peaking around
    35 kft with some of the strongest updrafts across far eastern OK
    into western AR, with some severe hail possible with a strong storm
    core in LeFlore County, OK. Given 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the
    MCS, storms are expected to maintain modest intensity for a couple
    more hours, with damaging gusts and occasional marginally severe
    hail being the main threats. While low-level shear remains
    relatively modest across the watch area, a brief tornado cannot be
    completely ruled out with any transient QLCS circulations that are
    not undercut by outflow. Otherwise, storms are expected to gradually
    weaken by around 06Z given the onset of boundary-layer
    stabilization, and the tendency for storms to be well undercut by
    outflow.

    ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 05/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uETlTHLaF6nv2eITYURmeuDFSNm2_hM9W9NY84bfzT9VjaJERnLYI12FIRCWWMGV_JidoLKR$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 34559459 35129453 35649442 35819405 35879297 35869220
    35869171 35549118 35049108 34539116 34179159 34079248
    34099371 34559459=20



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